York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

002
FXUS63 KGID 231143
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (20-40%) for some patchy fog in western parts of
  the area this morning. Higher chance (40-70%) for more
  widespread fog late tonight into Sunday morning.

- Cold front brings in slightly cooler air for Monday-Tuesday.

- Next system brings chance for precipitation (snow for most)
  Wednesday into Thursday. Light snow accumulations are possible
  (20-40% chance for 1" or more), but significant snow is
  unlikely.

- Even colder air arrives for the rest of the Thanksgiving
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Widespread cirrus continues to move across the area early this
morning, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s. The
HRRR continues to show potential for fog to develop in western
portions of the area as this cirrus thins, but coverage/impacts
of any fog that develops should be minimal.

Other than continued cloud cover, today is set-up to be a
fairly pleasant day for late November, and likely the nicest day
we`ll see for a while. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures
should reach the 50s for most (near 60 parts of KS). Get outside
and enjoy it if you can! Tonight into Sunday morning, the HRRR
depicts more widespread fog developing near the approaching
front. That said, confidence in this occurring is still on the
lower side given continued cloud cover.

Sunday temperatures are expected to be only slightly cooler
than today, but the arrival of a cold front will usher in breezy
north winds. By late afternoon, gusts of 25-30 MPH will be
possible. Some post-frontal flurries/sprinkles cannot be ruled
out Sunday night, but no accumulation/impacts are expected.

Behind this front, Monday will be noticably cooler, and most
locations will struggle to reach 40 degrees Monday
afternoon...even under mostly clear skies. Southerly winds
return on Tuesday, pushing temperatures back closer to normal
(40s to near 50 degrees).

The next shortwave then moves into the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Deterministic models continue to depict a fairly
weak/open wave, and ensembles generally show light QPF.
Depending on low-level temperatures, this may begin on Wednesday
as a mixture of rain/snow, but would transition to primarily
snow as cold air pushes into the area. Per the 01Z NBM, the
potential for 1" or more has increased slightly compared to 24
hours ago, but is still only in the 20-40% range.

Some light snow/flurries could linger through Thanksgiving Day.
Continued cloud cover and cold air advection will likely result
in high temperatures only the 30s for most. This cold airmass
then stays in-place through the rest of the holiday weekend.
Single digit low temperatures are even possible (20-40% chance)
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered high clouds are gradually thinning out. As this
occurs, there is a chance for some patchy fog to develop this
morning, but the best chance for this is west of EAR.

Additional high clouds move into the area during the day today
as southeasterly winds remain light.

There is a higher chance (50-60%) for fog to impact the
terminals tonight, although is is still somewhat uncertain how
dense or widespread it will be given lingering high clouds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels